Kansas v Washington St
Women's · Thursday, November 26, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya. Kansas our rank 51 · 3-0; Washington St our rank 81 · 1-2.
Who will win Kansas vs Washington St?
The model gives Kansas a 68% chance to beat Washington State, with a projected score of Kansas 67, Washington St 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | |||||
| DavisF · 28 min | 19.0 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 20+ 44% | |
| NicholsG · 23 min | 12.6 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 15+ 34% | |
| WilliamsF · 27 min | 9.3 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 43% | |
| FandelG · 30 min | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 10+ 36% | |
| Washington St | |||||
| VillaG · 36 min | 17.8 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 20+ 37% | |
| CovillC · 19 min | 9.6 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 10+ 45% | |
| RuudF · 18 min | 7.4 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 5+ 69% | |
| ChatfieldG · 31 min | 6.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaliya Davis: Kansas 52%Washington St 48%
The white mark is the call with her: Kansas 68%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Kansas without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | ||||
| Jaliya Davis | 5.2 | 52% | −16 | 65–64 |
| S'Mya Nichols | 4.2 | 55% | −13 | 65–64 |
| Regan Williams | 2.7 | 60% | −8 | 66–63 |
| Brittany Harshaw | 2.3 | 61% | −7 | 66–63 |
| Washington St | ||||
| Eleonora Villa | 3.7 | 78% | +10 | 69–60 |
| Charlotte Abraham | 2.2 | 74% | +6 | 68–60 |
| Mackenzie Chatfield | 1.9 | 73% | +5 | 68–61 |
| Malia Ruud | 1.8 | 73% | +5 | 68–61 |
Change is in Kansas's win chance, in points. Scores read Kansas, then Washington St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Kansas 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 79.7 and allowing 49.3
Washington St 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 63.7 and allowing 65.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Kansas | Washington St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.6 70th | 96.7 102nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.7 42nd | 86.0 60th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.7% 114th | 46.2% 131st |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.7% 34th | 43.5% 63rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.5% 181st | 21.1% 24th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 234th | 30.1% 311th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 28th | 0.17 347th |
The widest gap: Kansas's defense (42nd) against Washington St's offense (102nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Kansas 32, Washington St 29
- First-half margin
- Kansas by 3.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.1
- Projected second half
- Kansas 35, Washington St 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Kansas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 24.3 allowed
- Washington St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Kansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany HarshawG | 31 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Libby FandelG | 30 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Jaliya DavisF | 28 | 19.0 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 20+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Regan WilliamsF | 27 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| S'Mya NicholsG | 23 | 12.6 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 4+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Anna GoodenG | 22 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Brooklynn RennF | 15 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Mollie ErnstesG | 14 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Washington St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eleonora VillaG | 36 | 17.8 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 50% · 5+ ast 44% | |||||
| Mackenzie ChatfieldG | 31 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Tanja ValancicF | 30 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Charlotte AbrahamG | 24 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Alex CovillC | 19 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 41% | |||||
| Malia RuudF | 18 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Aicha BahG | 16 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Malvina HaziriG | 13 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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