Fairfield v N Dakota St
Women's · Thursday, November 26, 2026, 3:30 PM ET at McArthur Center. Fairfield our rank 48 · 3-0; N Dakota St our rank 85 · 1-3.
Who will win Fairfield vs N Dakota St?
The model gives Fairfield a 71% chance to beat North Dakota State, with a projected score of Fairfield 72, N Dakota St 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfield | |||||
| L'AmoreauxG · 36 min | 20.2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 20+ 50% | |
| AndersenF · 32 min | 13.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 15+ 42% | |
| CoeF · 24 min | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 10+ 53% | |
| McCarthyF · 18 min | 9.2 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 10+ 42% | |
| N Dakota St | |||||
| AspF · 33 min | 15.8 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 15+ 54% | |
| FrostG · 36 min | 12.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 10+ 65% | |
| SchillerG · 33 min | 10.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 48% | |
| HawkinsonG · 31 min | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kaety L'Amoreaux: Fairfield 54%N Dakota St 46%
The white mark is the call with her: Fairfield 71%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Fairfield without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfield | ||||
| Kaety L'Amoreaux | 5.5 | 54% | −17 | 70–69 |
| Meghan Andersen | 3.9 | 59% | −12 | 71–68 |
| Cyanne Coe | 3.3 | 61% | −10 | 71–67 |
| Jillian Huerter | 2.0 | 65% | −6 | 72–67 |
| N Dakota St | ||||
| Karrington Asp | 3.8 | 80% | +9 | 74–64 |
| Marisa Frost | 3.1 | 79% | +8 | 74–64 |
| Jocelyn Schiller | 2.2 | 77% | +6 | 74–65 |
| Miriley Simon | 1.7 | 75% | +4 | 73–65 |
Change is in Fairfield's win chance, in points. Scores read Fairfield, then N Dakota St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Fairfield 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 69-67at Seton Hall
- Nov 8W 74-50vs Vermont
- Nov 6W 90-63vs Binghamton
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 77.7 and allowing 60.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Fairfield | N Dakota St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.2 37th | 99.2 80th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 87.9 73rd | 90.0 107th |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 225th | 70.5 318th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.2% 9th | 46.8% 105th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.0% 314th | 45.8% 194th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.2% 74th | 24.1% 235th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 197th | 31.9% 234th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 303rd | 0.20 255th |
The widest gap: Fairfield's offense (37th) against N Dakota St's defense (107th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Fairfield 35, N Dakota St 31
- First-half margin
- Fairfield by 3.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.6
- Projected second half
- Fairfield 38, N Dakota St 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Fairfield, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 27.3 allowed
- N Dakota St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 27.2 scored, 26.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Fairfield
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaety L'AmoreauxG | 36 | 20.2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 50% · 6+ ast 48% | |||||
| Meghan AndersenF | 32 | 13.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Paige KohlerG | 25 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Jillian HuerterG | 25 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Cyanne CoeF | 24 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Lana McCarthyF | 18 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Milou van VlietF | 17 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Addison RhodesG | 14 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
Missed the last game: Milou van Vliet (21 min a game).
N Dakota St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marisa FrostG | 36 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Jocelyn SchillerG | 33 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Karrington AspF | 33 | 15.8 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Sophie HawkinsonG | 31 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Miriley SimonF | 24 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Elena LazarevicG | 17 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 31% to play · 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| McKenna JohnsonF | 14 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 50% | |||||
| Madelynn MunizG | 13 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 2+ reb 26% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Missed the last game: Elena Lazarevic (20 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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