Fairfield at Long Island
Sunday, November 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Brooklyn Athletic Center. Fairfield our rank 292 · 1-2; Long Island our rank 268 · 0-4.
Who will win Fairfield vs Long Island?
The model gives Long Island University a 63% chance to beat Fairfield, with a projected score of Long Island 72, Fairfield 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Island | |||||
| AlletteG · 33 min | 12.6 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 15+ 34% | |
| DavisG · 32 min | 12.5 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 65% | |
| JohnsonF · 22 min | 7.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 10+ 32% | |
| BowlesF · 27 min | 7.6 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 5+ 69% | |
| Fairfield | |||||
| WucherpfennigG · 32 min | 13.4 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 15+ 39% | |
| WilliamsG · 20 min | 6.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5+ 62% | |
| SmithF · 19 min | 6.7 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 5+ 62% | |
| EdelenG · 16 min | 6.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Vasean Allette: Fairfield 40%Long Island 60%
The white mark is the call with him: Long Island 63%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Long Island without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Island | ||||
| Vasean Allette | 1.0 | 60% | −3 | 69–71 |
| Fairfield | ||||
| Qadir Martin | 0.6 | 65% | +2 | 68–72 |
Change is in Long Island's win chance, in points. Scores read Fairfield, then Long Island. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Fairfield 1-2LWL
- Nov 10L 42-89at WisconsinDidn't cover +25.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 8W 68-59at BryantCovered −1.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 5L 67-79vs VermontDidn't cover +1.5 · Over 139.5
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 59.0 and allowing 75.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
Long Island 0-4LLLL
- Nov 9L 46-66at TowsonDidn't cover +7.5 · Under 140.5
- Nov 7L 80-88at La SalleDidn't cover +4.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 5L 60-67at Seton HallCovered +17.5 · Under 135.5
- Nov 2L 60-74at FAU
- Last 4
- 0–4, scoring 61.5 and allowing 73.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Fairfield | Long Island | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.5 310th | 95.4 333rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.4 239th | 106.7 143rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.7 196th | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.9% 363rd | 48.0% 335th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.8% 323rd | 48.4% 43rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.5% 30th | 19.0% 285th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 168th | 29.7% 297th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 175th | 0.26 166th |
The widest gap: Long Island's defense (143rd) against Fairfield's offense (310th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Fairfield 32, Long Island 34
- First-half margin
- Long Island by 2.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.7
- Projected second half
- Fairfield 36, Long Island 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Fairfield, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 23.7 scored, 40.0 allowed
- Long Island, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 4 · 30.0 scored, 36.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Fairfield
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan WucherpfennigG | 32 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 8+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Halon RawlinsG | 25 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jah HatchettG | 20 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Tony WilliamsG | 20 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Peyton SmithF | 19 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Cole EdelenG | 16 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Qadir MartinF | 16 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
| Eric MejiaG | 14 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
Long Island
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasean AlletteG | 33 | 12.6 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 6+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Daquan DavisG | 32 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Tyrell BowlesF | 27 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Justin JohnsonF | 22 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Ryan BewleyF | 20 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Josh PickettG | 19 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Joshua SkinnerG | 17 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Max Ndlovu-FraserG | 12 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 67% to play · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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