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Probable Stats / Women's / Thursday, November 19

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Manhattan at Long Island

Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Brooklyn Athletic Center. Manhattan our rank 295 · 1-3; Long Island our rank 345 · 0-4.

Who will win Manhattan vs Long Island?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Manhattan a 63% chance to beat Long Island University, with a projected score of Manhattan 63, Long Island 59.

To winManhattan 63%Long Island 37%
Projected score63–59Manhattan, then Long Island
Margin3.9Manhattan · no line posted
Total122.2no line posted
First half30–28Manhattan ahead 58%
Manhattan by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Long Island by 30Model: Manhattan by 3.9Manhattan by 30by 10by 10Long Island by 30Model: Manhattan by 3.9

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Manhattan
MurtaghG · 33 min13.03.72.015+ 37%
Grgicevich LasseyG · 30 min9.33.62.510+ 43%
BaumgarteF · 31 min8.96.52.210+ 40%
HarperG · 24 min6.82.21.95+ 63%
Long Island
WilliamsG · 32 min14.07.61.915+ 43%
NunezF · 35 min11.44.11.310+ 58%
PoindujourG · 24 min6.22.31.85+ 58%
HuskeyG · 21 min5.92.51.35+ 55%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Manhattan 1-3WLLL

    1. Nov 12L 55-58at FDU
    2. Nov 8L 46-63vs Bryant
    3. Nov 5L 61-62at UAlbany
    4. Nov 2W 67-42vs Pace
    Last 4
    1–3, scoring 57.2 and allowing 56.2

    Long Island 0-4LLLL

    1. Nov 11L 50-69at SMU
    2. Nov 7L 42-92at Pitt
    3. Nov 4L 51-69at Texas St
    4. Nov 2L 52-83at Rutgers
    Last 4
    0–4, scoring 48.8 and allowing 78.2

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    ManhattanLong Island
    Points scored per 100 possessions79.0 322nd77.0 342nd
    Points allowed per 10095.5 209th103.0 340th
    Possessions a game72.0 179th72.3 148th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)44.7% 231st46.4% 122nd
    Opponents' shooting44.4% 119th44.4% 116th
    Turnovers, share of possessions24.0% 219th29.4% 357th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.0% 317th34.4% 104th
    Free throws per shot0.19 316th0.18 332nd

    The widest gap: Manhattan's defense (209th) against Long Island's offense (342nd), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Manhattan 30, Long Island 28
    First-half margin
    Manhattan by 2.3
    First-half points, both teams
    57.9
    Projected second half
    Manhattan 33, Long Island 31
    Second-half points, both teams
    64.3
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Manhattan, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 4 · 26.0 scored, 30.8 allowed
    Long Island, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 4 · 24.8 scored, 38.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Manhattan

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Taylah MurtaghG3313.03.72.01.9
    15+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 51%
    Amanda BaumgarteF318.96.52.20.5
    10+ pts 40% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 62%
    Olivia Grgicevich LasseyG309.33.62.50.8
    10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 51%
    Celeste HarperG246.82.21.91.3
    5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 53%
    Laura RingF226.74.41.10.9
    5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 55%
    Laia Izquierdo AltimiraF184.33.81.00.5
    5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 39%
    Ana ZesatiF164.93.40.90.1
    5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 23%
    Cortney HowellF143.93.50.40.1
    5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 43%

    Long Island

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Leila NunezF3511.44.11.32.0
    10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 53%
    Janessa WilliamsG3214.07.61.91.4
    15+ pts 43% · 8+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 53%
    Camille WileyG304.62.52.10.3
    5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 58%
    Teriyah McFaddenG285.52.82.90.8
    5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 51%
    Fabiana PoindujourG246.22.31.81.2
    5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 50%
    Laura MolnarovaF215.54.11.00.4
    5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 33%
    Sydney HuskeyG215.92.51.30.9
    5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 56%
    Kylie MorrisF123.02.60.40.1
    5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 44%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Thu, Nov 19

    All games
    1. 11 AMprojected 68-76Purdue vs Florida St, women's: game page
    2. 6 PMprojected 64-64Texas Tech vs North Carolina, women's: game page
    3. 6 PMprojected 62-67App State at Wake Forest, women's: game page
    4. 6 PMprojected 60-70James Madison at Virginia, women's: game page
    5. 6 PMprojected 65-65High Point at Vermont, women's: game page
    6. 10 PMprojected 67-77Fairfield at Oregon, women's: game page
    Manhattan next: vs Fordham, Sun, Nov 15 · 38%Long Island next: at G Washington, Sat, Nov 14 · 2%Manhattan: schedule and oddsLong Island: schedule and odds