Who will win MTSU vs Auburn?
The model gives Auburn a 91% chance to beat Middle Tennessee, with a projected score of Auburn 70, MTSU 53.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Auburn | |||||
| PetersonF · 23 min | 8.5 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 10+ 37% | |
| HarrisG · 25 min | 8.3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 35% | |
| OshoF · 25 min | 8.2 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 10+ 35% | |
| StotijnG · 23 min | 6.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 5+ 63% | |
 MTSU | |||||
| BaugusG · 33 min | 11.7 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 60% | |
| WhitfieldG · 25 min | 8.9 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 40% | |
| KoneG · 29 min | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 31% | |
| VerhulstG · 28 min | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 5+ 51% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jessica Peterson: MTSU 13%Auburn 87%
The white mark is the call with her: Auburn 91%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Auburn without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn | ||||
| Jessica Peterson | 2.3 | 87% | −4 | 55–69 |
| Ja'Mia Harris | 2.0 | 88% | −3 | 54–69 |
| Danielle Osho | 1.8 | 88% | −3 | 54–69 |
| Quanirah Montague | 1.6 | 89% | −2 | 54–69 |
| MTSU | ||||
| Blair Baugus | 2.7 | 94% | +3 | 52–71 |
| Mya Kone | 0.8 | 92% | +1 | 53–70 |
Change is in Auburn's win chance, in points. Scores read MTSU, then Auburn. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
MTSU 1-2WLL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 64.3 and allowing 80.3
Auburn 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 74-56vs Furman
- Nov 5W 56-48vs Southern Miss
- Nov 2W 84-35vs Alabama St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 71.3 and allowing 46.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| MTSU | Auburn | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.6 184th | 93.8 130th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.3 178th | 83.0 45th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 71.2 265th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.8% 290th | 44.5% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 220th | 40.1% 6th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.2% 328th | 25.7% 314th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 104th | 35.1% 79th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 42nd | 0.28 4th |
The widest gap: Auburn's defense (45th) against MTSU's offense (184th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- MTSU 25, Auburn 34
- First-half margin
- Auburn by 9.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 58.5
- Projected second half
- MTSU 29, Auburn 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 64.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- MTSU, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 39.0 allowed
- Auburn, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 22.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
MTSU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blair BaugusG | 33 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Mya KoneG | 29 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Kirston VerhulstG | 28 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Xai WhitfieldG | 25 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Carsyn SwaneyG | 21 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Stanislava KabernickF | 18 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Aaliyah BlanchardG | 18 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Maayan CohenG | 14 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Auburn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danielle OshoF | 25 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Ja'Mia HarrisG | 25 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Phoenix StotijnG | 23 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Jessica PetersonF | 23 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 8+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Sania RichardsonG | 20 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Quanirah MontagueF | 17 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Kaitlyn DuhonG | 17 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Ashley KnoxG | 16 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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