Akron at Youngstown St
Women's · Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Zidian Family Arena at Beeghly Center. Akron our rank 230 · 0-3; Youngstown St our rank 136 · 2-1.
Who will win Akron vs Youngstown St?
The model gives Youngstown State a 88% chance to beat Akron, with a projected score of Youngstown St 72, Akron 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youngstown St | |||||
| HernandezF · 24 min | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 61% | |
| BakerF · 24 min | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 50% | |
| CameronG · 30 min | 9.8 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 10+ 47% | |
| KalichF · 25 min | 9.6 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 46% | |
| Akron | |||||
| BrewG · 29 min | 10.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 10+ 49% | |
| FeganF · 31 min | 9.9 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 10+ 48% | |
| ThorntonG · 18 min | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 5+ 54% | |
| MitchellG · 13 min | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 5+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Paulina Hernandez: Akron 17%Youngstown St 83%
The white mark is the call with her: Youngstown St 88%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Youngstown St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youngstown St | ||||
| Paulina Hernandez | 2.3 | 83% | −5 | 59–71 |
| Sarah Baker | 1.6 | 85% | −3 | 58–71 |
| Jada Leonard | 1.2 | 85% | −3 | 58–71 |
| Danielle Cameron | 0.9 | 86% | −2 | 58–72 |
| Akron | ||||
| Jessie Joaquim | 1.2 | 89% | +1 | 57–73 |
| Macey Fegan | 1.0 | 89% | +1 | 57–72 |
Change is in Youngstown St's win chance, in points. Scores read Akron, then Youngstown St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Akron 0-3LLL
- Nov 9L 54-70at Xavier
- Nov 5L 60-66at George Mason
- Nov 2L 74-75vs South Alabama
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 62.7 and allowing 70.3
Youngstown St 2-1WWL
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.7 and allowing 50.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Akron | Youngstown St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 86.2 248th | 89.5 185th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.1 239th | 88.5 85th |
| Possessions a game | 73.7 57th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.0% 313th | 45.3% 186th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 224th | 45.6% 181st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.3% 168th | 21.9% 54th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 175th | 28.4% 352nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 65th | 0.21 192nd |
The widest gap: Youngstown St's defense (85th) against Akron's offense (248th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Akron 27, Youngstown St 35
- First-half margin
- Youngstown St by 8.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.4
- Projected second half
- Akron 31, Youngstown St 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Akron, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 29.3 scored, 36.0 allowed
- Youngstown St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 29.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Akron
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macey FeganF | 31 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Shaena BrewG | 29 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Tyla HeardG | 26 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Jessie JoaquimF | 23 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 52% | |||||
| Teniesha ClarkeG | 19 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Kaylah ThorntonG | 18 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Kailee BransfordG | 17 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Monique MitchellG | 13 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Missed the last game: Monique Mitchell (16 min a game).
Youngstown St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danielle CameronG | 30 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Evelyn McKnightG | 27 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Erica KingG | 27 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Mia KalichF | 25 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Sarah BakerF | 24 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Paulina HernandezF | 24 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Jada LeonardG | 22 | 9.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Hayden BarrierG | 12 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 22% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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