Maine at Quinnipiac
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Arena. Maine our rank 322 · 1-3; Quinnipiac our rank 265 · 2-2.
Who will win Maine vs Quinnipiac?
The model gives Quinnipiac a 71% chance to beat Maine, with a projected score of Quinnipiac 73, Maine 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | |||||
| SekasiG · 34 min | 13.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 15+ 38% | |
| Cunningham-PembertonG · 28 min | 13.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 15+ 39% | |
| McKnightF · 33 min | 13.0 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 15+ 37% | |
| HartF · 28 min | 7.9 | 7.7 | 0.6 | 10+ 33% | |
| Maine | |||||
| WilliamsG · 30 min | 10.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 10+ 52% | |
| Garcia AdstenG · 26 min | 8.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 10+ 38% | |
| FlaggF · 25 min | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 5+ 68% | |
| LopesG · 18 min | 6.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Keith McKnight: Maine 31%Quinnipiac 69%
The white mark is the call with him: Quinnipiac 71%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Quinnipiac without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | ||||
| Keith McKnight | 0.8 | 69% | −2 | 68–73 |
Change is in Quinnipiac's win chance, in points. Scores read Maine, then Quinnipiac. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Maine 1-3LWLL
- Nov 10L 65-71at Rhode IslandCovered +20.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 8L 62-68vs ManhattanDidn't cover −3.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 5W 74-72at Sacred HeartCovered +5.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 2L 56-83at Providence
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 64.2 and allowing 73.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
Quinnipiac 2-2LWWL
- Nov 12L 70-74vs MonmouthDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 8W 79-76at VermontCovered +8.5 · Over 139.5
- Nov 5W 66-56vs BryantCovered −6.5 · Under 148.5
- Nov 2L 59-96at Michigan St
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 68.5 and allowing 75.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Maine | Quinnipiac | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.7 357th | 100.5 257th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.8 191st | 111.6 283rd |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 276th | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 174th | 49.9% 230th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.4% 21st | 50.8% 203rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.0% 339th | 17.6% 121st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 26.4% 363rd | 32.6% 130th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 73rd | 0.24 291st |
The widest gap: Quinnipiac's defense (283rd) against Maine's offense (357th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Maine 31, Quinnipiac 35
- First-half margin
- Quinnipiac by 3.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.0
- Projected second half
- Maine 36, Quinnipiac 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Maine, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 27.0 scored, 27.8 allowed
- Quinnipiac, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 32.8 scored, 39.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Maine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre WilliamsG | 30 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Villiam Garcia AdstenG | 26 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Ace FlaggF | 25 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Killian GribbenF | 22 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Hudson FranzG | 19 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Yanis BambaF | 19 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Ayden EvansF | 18 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Darius LopesG | 18 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
Quinnipiac
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas SekasiG | 34 | 13.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Keith McKnightF | 33 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Tayeshawn Cunningham-PembertonG | 28 | 13.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Nas HartF | 28 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 8+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Tai TurnageG | 20 | 7.9 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 47% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Nate GuerengombaG | 17 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 30% to play · 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Ali DioufF | 16 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Holden Pierre-LouisF | 14 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
Missed the last game: Nate Guerengomba (20 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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