Green Bay at Kansas City
Tuesday, November 24, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Swinney Center. Green Bay our rank 145 · 2-2; Kansas City our rank 287 · 2-3.
Who will win Green Bay vs Kansas City?
The model gives Green Bay a 69% chance to beat Kansas City, with a projected score of Green Bay 79, Kansas City 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | |||||
| LovejoyG · 31 min | 15.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 15+ 53% | |
| HallF · 33 min | 13.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 15+ 41% | |
| BrownG · 27 min | 12.7 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 15+ 35% | |
| CarsonG · 23 min | 11.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 10+ 55% | |
| Kansas City | |||||
| SmithG · 29 min | 14.7 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 15+ 47% | |
| SickingF · 24 min | 10.6 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 53% | |
| DiopF · 27 min | 10.5 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 10+ 51% | |
| GoodwinG · 26 min | 10.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 10+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Orlando Lovejoy: Green Bay 64%Kansas City 36%
The white mark is the call with him: Green Bay 69%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Green Bay without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | ||||
| Orlando Lovejoy | 1.4 | 64% | −5 | 78–74 |
| Marcus Hall | 0.9 | 66% | −3 | 78–74 |
| Henry Gruetzmacher | 0.6 | 67% | −2 | 79–74 |
Change is in Green Bay's win chance, in points. Scores read Green Bay, then Kansas City. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Green Bay 2-2WLWL
- Nov 10L 76-89at Northern IowaDidn't cover +3.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 8W 76-67at St ThomasCovered +8.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 5L 64-81at CincinnatiCovered +23.5 · Under 152.5
- Nov 2W 94-51vs Lawrence
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 77.5 and allowing 72.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
Kansas City 2-3LWLWL
- Nov 12L 68-76vs George MasonCovered +15.5 · Over 141.5
- Nov 11W 87-65vs Florida A&MCovered −8.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 9L 61-79at JacksonvilleDidn't cover +3.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 6W 100-93vs S IllinoisCovered −1.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2L 61-76at Creighton
- Last five
- 2–3, scoring 75.4 and allowing 77.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 3–1
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Green Bay | Kansas City | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.7 107th | 99.8 276th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.9 256th | 112.4 297th |
| Possessions a game | 68.7 348th | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.0% 38th | 53.7% 19th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.7% 319th | 50.5% 186th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.9% 283rd | 18.1% 188th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.5% 33rd | 26.3% 365th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 272nd | 0.27 118th |
The widest gap: Green Bay's offense (107th) against Kansas City's defense (297th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Green Bay 37, Kansas City 34
- First-half margin
- Green Bay by 3.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.4
- Projected second half
- Green Bay 42, Kansas City 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Green Bay, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 35.0 scored, 34.2 allowed
- Kansas City, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 5 · 39.6 scored, 33.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Green Bay
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus HallF | 33 | 13.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Orlando LovejoyG | 31 | 15.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Ne'quan BrownG | 27 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ahmere CarsonG | 23 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Isaiah SutherlandF | 18 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Maruan CicicC | 17 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Clarence PayiaG | 14 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Mac WreckeG | 10 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
Kansas City
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen SmithG | 29 | 14.7 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 5+ ast 42% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Assane DiopF | 27 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 8+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Lincoln GoodwinG | 26 | 10.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Sebastian HartmannF | 24 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Jibbe SickingF | 24 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Carl Daughtery Jr.G | 20 | 7.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Matija SamarG | 20 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Atuka BakhtadzeF | 15 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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