Who will win Gonzaga vs Stanford?
The model gives Stanford a 69% chance to beat Gonzaga, with a projected score of Stanford 73, Gonzaga 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stanford | |||||
| SwainG · 37 min | 18.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 20+ 40% | |
| EschmeyerF · 28 min | 9.3 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 10+ 43% | |
| EzikeF · 23 min | 8.5 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 10+ 37% | |
| TuhyF · 22 min | 8.2 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 10+ 35% | |
 Gonzaga | |||||
| WhittakerF · 26 min | 15.7 | 9.2 | 2.0 | 15+ 53% | |
| TurnerG · 31 min | 13.0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 15+ 37% | |
| SmithF · 25 min | 8.3 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 10+ 36% | |
| AokusoG · 24 min | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Alexandra Eschmeyer: Gonzaga 42%Stanford 58%
The white mark is the call with her: Stanford 69%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Stanford without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford | ||||
| Alexandra Eschmeyer | 3.5 | 58% | −11 | 69–71 |
| Hailee Swain | 2.9 | 60% | −9 | 69–72 |
| Ines Sotelo Miguez | 2.9 | 60% | −9 | 69–72 |
| Shay Ijiwoye | 2.2 | 62% | −7 | 68–72 |
| Gonzaga | ||||
| Lauren Whittaker | 4.9 | 81% | +12 | 65–76 |
| Allie Turner | 2.7 | 76% | +7 | 66–75 |
| Taylor Smith | 1.8 | 74% | +5 | 66–74 |
| Teryn Gardner | 1.8 | 74% | +5 | 66–74 |
Change is in Stanford's win chance, in points. Scores read Gonzaga, then Stanford. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Gonzaga 2-1WLW
- Nov 8W 85-58vs UC Riverside
- Nov 6L 75-86vs Idaho
- Nov 2W 62-56vs N Dakota St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.0 and allowing 66.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Gonzaga | Stanford | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 59th | 99.2 79th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.5 116th | 85.8 59th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 164th | 73.0 96th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.1% 201st | 48.9% 25th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.3% 230th | 47.1% 276th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.6% 193rd | 26.9% 342nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.9% 174th | 32.8% 176th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 106th | 0.20 235th |
The widest gap: Stanford's offense (79th) against Gonzaga's defense (116th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Gonzaga 32, Stanford 35
- First-half margin
- Stanford by 3.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.6
- Projected second half
- Gonzaga 36, Stanford 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Gonzaga, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.7 scored, 34.3 allowed
- Stanford, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 33.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Gonzaga
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allie TurnerG | 31 | 13.0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Lauren WhittakerF | 26 | 15.7 | 9.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 9+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Taylor SmithF | 25 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Teryn GardnerG | 24 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Zeryhia AokusoG | 24 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Ines BettencourtG | 21 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| McKynnlie DalanF | 17 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Julia WilsonG | 15 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 38% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
Stanford
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hailee SwainG | 37 | 18.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Shay IjiwoyeG | 35 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Ines Sotelo MiguezF | 28 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Alexandra EschmeyerF | 28 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Nora EzikeF | 23 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Charlotte TuhyF | 22 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 8+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ilse de VriesF | 12 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…