Probable Stats
Menu
Get predictions by email
Men'sWomen's

Probable Stats / Women's / Monday, November 16

Men'sWomen's
Get predictions by email

AR-Pine Bluff at UL Monroe

Women's · Monday, November 16, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at b1Bank Fant Coliseum. AR-Pine Bluff our rank 301 · 1-3; UL Monroe our rank 263 · 1-2.

Who will win AR-Pine Bluff vs UL Monroe?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives UL Monroe a 71% chance to beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff, with a projected score of UL Monroe 69, AR-Pine Bluff 62.

To winUL Monroe 71%AR-Pine Bluff 29%
Projected score62–69AR-Pine Bluff, then UL Monroe
Margin7.1UL Monroe · no line posted
Total131.9no line posted
First half29–33UL Monroe ahead 65%
AR-Pine Bluff by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30UL Monroe by 40Model: UL Monroe by 7.1AR-Pine Bluff by 20Evenby 20UL Monroe by 40Model: UL Monroe by 7.1

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
UL Monroe
CulverG · 17 min11.31.61.310+ 57%
HuntG · 27 min9.12.62.710+ 42%
LindseyG · 21 min7.14.71.65+ 66%
ScottG · 23 min6.91.91.75+ 64%
AR-Pine Bluff
BowenG · 29 min15.22.32.015+ 50%
PellyG · 28 min13.63.93.315+ 40%
JacksonG · 27 min11.04.52.710+ 56%
TaylorF · 24 min7.57.50.75+ 69%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    AR-Pine Bluff 1-3LLWL

    1. Nov 12L 90-95at Arkansas
    2. Nov 9W 84-50vs Arkansas Baptist
    3. Nov 4L 47-66at Tarleton St
    4. Nov 2L 54-77at Texas A&M
    Last 4
    1–3, scoring 68.8 and allowing 72.0

    UL Monroe 1-2LWL

    1. Nov 9L 49-61vs C Arkansas
    2. Nov 5W 106-26vs Centenary (LA)
    3. Nov 2L 46-57at Ohio
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 67.0 and allowing 48.0

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    AR-Pine BluffUL Monroe
    Points scored per 100 possessions86.2 246th81.7 298th
    Points allowed per 100103.4 341st95.0 193rd
    Possessions a game72.3 148th72.7 115th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)44.8% 225th41.5% 346th
    Opponents' shooting45.6% 179th44.9% 145th
    Turnovers, share of possessions22.7% 111th24.8% 274th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses32.6% 190th33.2% 160th
    Free throws per shot0.21 181st0.23 58th

    The widest gap: UL Monroe's defense (193rd) against AR-Pine Bluff's offense (246th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    AR-Pine Bluff 29, UL Monroe 33
    First-half margin
    UL Monroe by 4.1
    First-half points, both teams
    62.5
    Projected second half
    AR-Pine Bluff 33, UL Monroe 36
    Second-half points, both teams
    69.4
    Tied at the half
    4%
    AR-Pine Bluff, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 4 · 33.5 scored, 35.8 allowed
    UL Monroe, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 33.7 scored, 23.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    AR-Pine Bluff

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Indiya BowenG2915.22.32.01.8
    15+ pts 50% · 2+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 49%
    Jailah PellyG2813.63.93.30.6
    15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 43%
    Jakyra JacksonG2711.04.52.70.2
    10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 49%
    Jasmine DavisG265.23.22.20.8
    5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 51%
    Yasmyn PalmerC256.34.90.70.0
    5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 15%
    Tyra TaylorF247.57.50.70.7
    5+ pts 69% · 8+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 48%
    Ruth BanjokoF202.93.50.70.0
    5+ pts 24% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 17%
    Parc LigginsG153.31.50.90.3
    5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 23%

    UL Monroe

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Kylee HuntG279.12.62.71.5
    10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 48%
    Nevaeh ScottG236.91.91.70.9
    5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 49%
    Summer FaleafaF236.05.41.00.6
    5+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 42%
    Lea NadolnyG225.32.82.10.7
    5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 46%
    Kayla LindseyG217.14.71.60.3
    5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 45%
    Erin HenryG206.22.51.60.8
    5+ pts 58% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 49%
    Nuria MucongoNA173.34.30.80.3
    5+ pts 28% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 27%
    Aiyanna CulverG1711.31.61.31.7
    10+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 47%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Mon, Nov 16

    All games
    1. 6 PMprojected 59-59Bryant at Holy Cross, women's: game page
    2. 6:30 PMprojected 63-72Cleveland St at Xavier, women's: game page
    3. 6:30 PMprojected 64-68Yale at Quinnipiac, women's: game page
    4. 8 PMprojected 60-98Troy at LSU, women's: game page
    5. 8 PMprojected 66-65UC Davis at N Colorado, women's: game page
    6. 8 PMprojected 74-66Arkansas at Little Rock, women's: game page
    AR-Pine Bluff next: at Louisiana Tech, Wed, Nov 18 · 2%UL Monroe next: vs Sam Houston, Thu, Nov 19 · 60%AR-Pine Bluff: schedule and oddsUL Monroe: schedule and odds