Who will win Stetson vs UCF?
The model gives UCF a 90% chance to beat Stetson, with a projected score of UCF 72, Stetson 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UCF | |||||
| Chandler-RobertsF · 32 min | 15.4 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 15+ 51% | |
| BlasighG · 33 min | 12.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| RosebyG · 26 min | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| JonesG · 28 min | 11.5 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 10+ 59% | |
 Stetson | |||||
| LocatelliG · 28 min | 8.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 10+ 37% | |
| Garcia-Escribano PozoF · 29 min | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 32% | |
| NievesG · 22 min | 7.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 10+ 32% | |
| Nmecha AnyaeleF · 24 min | 4.8 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 5+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Vittoria Blasigh: Stetson 13%UCF 87%
The white mark is the call with her: UCF 90%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UCF without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | ||||
| Vittoria Blasigh | 1.6 | 87% | −3 | 57–71 |
| Caitlyn Jones | 1.1 | 88% | −2 | 57–72 |
| Mahogany Chandler-Roberts | 1.0 | 88% | −2 | 57–72 |
| Key Roseby | 0.9 | 88% | −2 | 57–72 |
Change is in UCF's win chance, in points. Scores read Stetson, then UCF. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Stetson 1-3WLLL
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 51.5 and allowing 70.2
UCF 3-1WLWW
- Nov 11W 64-59vs Austin Peay
- Nov 9W 85-59vs South Alabama
- Nov 5L 65-95at Florida
- Nov 3W 85-56vs Florida A&M
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 74.8 and allowing 67.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Stetson | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 80.0 319th | 93.4 135th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.3 205th | 94.6 184th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 72.3 148th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 41.7% 343rd | 49.4% 22nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.2% 227th | 44.0% 91st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.1% 326th | 24.9% 282nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.2% 308th | 29.8% 325th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 305th | 0.22 129th |
The widest gap: UCF's defense (184th) against Stetson's offense (319th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Stetson 26, UCF 35
- First-half margin
- UCF by 8.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.0
- Projected second half
- Stetson 31, UCF 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Stetson, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 25.7 scored, 34.3 allowed
- UCF, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 35.8 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Stetson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candela Garcia-Escribano PozoF | 29 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Sophie LocatelliG | 28 | 8.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Favour Nmecha AnyaeleF | 24 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 57% | |||||
| Jorah EppleyG | 23 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Desireck NievesG | 22 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Addison GodbyG | 16 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Cici DriessenG | 16 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Raven LeXanderF | 15 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
UCF
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vittoria BlasighG | 33 | 12.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Mahogany Chandler-RobertsF | 32 | 15.4 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Caitlyn JonesG | 28 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 53% · 5+ ast 44% | |||||
| Candace KpetikouC | 27 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 7+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Key RosebyG | 26 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Nyla McFaddenG | 21 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Jasmynne GibsonF | 18 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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