Who will win Charlotte vs Davidson?
The model gives Davidson a 92% chance to beat Charlotte, with a projected score of Davidson 76, Charlotte 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Davidson | |||||
| DonovanG · 28 min | 16.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 15+ 56% | |
| BruyndoncxG · 30 min | 14.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 15+ 46% | |
| BessellG · 25 min | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 5+ 66% | |
| Alvarez CastellanosG · 27 min | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 5+ 49% | |
 Charlotte | |||||
| SainG · 29 min | 9.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 10+ 44% | |
| BestG · 28 min | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 41% | |
| ThompsonF · 22 min | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 10+ 31% | |
| ClarkG · 20 min | 6.8 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Katie Donovan: Charlotte 12%Davidson 88%
The white mark is the call with her: Davidson 92%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Davidson without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davidson | ||||
| Katie Donovan | 3.1 | 88% | −4 | 60–74 |
| Kyra Bruyndoncx | 2.6 | 89% | −3 | 59–75 |
| Ines Garcia Monje | 2.1 | 90% | −2 | 59–75 |
| Emilie Bessell | 2.0 | 90% | −2 | 59–75 |
| Charlotte | ||||
| Da'Brya Clark | 1.0 | 94% | +2 | 58–76 |
| Isis Johnson-Musah | 0.8 | 93% | +1 | 58–76 |
| Zoe Best | 0.7 | 93% | +1 | 58–76 |
| Ja'Navia Gage | 0.6 | 93% | +1 | 58–76 |
Change is in Davidson's win chance, in points. Scores read Charlotte, then Davidson. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Charlotte 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 64.7 and allowing 73.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Charlotte | Davidson | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.8 153rd | 101.2 66th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.5 228th | 88.5 85th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 70.3 327th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.9% 143rd | 44.7% 226th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.4% 326th | 47.8% 306th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.3% 296th | 21.0% 20th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.2% 155th | 31.9% 226th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 138th | 0.22 147th |
The widest gap: Davidson's offense (66th) against Charlotte's defense (228th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Charlotte 27, Davidson 37
- First-half margin
- Davidson by 10.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.5
- Projected second half
- Charlotte 31, Davidson 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Charlotte, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 26.3 scored, 38.7 allowed
- Davidson, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 37.2 scored, 29.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Charlotte
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariah SainG | 29 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Zoe BestG | 28 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Charish ThompsonF | 22 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Da'Brya ClarkG | 20 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Isis Johnson-MusahF | 18 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 52% | |||||
| Alana RouserF | 18 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 49% | |||||
| Destinee SalgadoF | 17 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 49% | |||||
| Ja'Navia GageF | 17 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 5+ reb 52% | |||||
Davidson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyra BruyndoncxG | 30 | 14.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Katie DonovanG | 28 | 16.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Elena Alvarez CastellanosG | 27 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 41% · 5+ ast 46% | |||||
| Emilie BessellG | 25 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Ines Garcia MonjeF | 23 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Sharni ReisingerG | 15 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Asha NightingaleF | 15 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Jasmine TimmersonG | 14 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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