N Illinois at Northwestern
Women's · Saturday, November 21, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Welsh-Ryan Arena. N Illinois our rank 278 · 1-2; Northwestern our rank 138 · 1-2.
Who will win N Illinois vs Northwestern?
The model gives Northwestern a 91% chance to beat Northern Illinois, with a projected score of Northwestern 78, N Illinois 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | |||||
| CarmodyG · 28 min | 16.4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 15+ 57% | |
| HarterG · 36 min | 13.6 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 15+ 40% | |
| Cooper-DerbaF · 32 min | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 15+ 34% | |
| NelsonG · 32 min | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 5+ 69% | |
| N Illinois | |||||
| MiddletonG · 29 min | 9.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 42% | |
| WingateF · 22 min | 8.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 10+ 35% | |
| DoyleG · 22 min | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 33% | |
| JohnsonG · 20 min | 7.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jasmyn Cooper-Derba: N Illinois 13%Northwestern 87%
The white mark is the call with her: Northwestern 91%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Northwestern without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | ||||
| Jasmyn Cooper-Derba | 2.7 | 87% | −4 | 63–77 |
| Lexi Blue | 1.5 | 89% | −2 | 62–77 |
| Lily Carmody | 1.3 | 89% | −2 | 62–78 |
| Camdyn Nelson | 1.0 | 90% | −1 | 62–78 |
Change is in Northwestern's win chance, in points. Scores read N Illinois, then Northwestern. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
N Illinois 1-2WLL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 65.0 and allowing 75.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Illinois | Northwestern | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 84.3 268th | 99.5 74th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.3 288th | 98.8 273rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 219th | 71.6 219th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.0% 206th | 47.6% 64th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.6% 180th | 49.6% 354th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.0% 220th | 22.9% 128th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 228th | 33.9% 125th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 147th | 0.24 37th |
The widest gap: Northwestern's offense (74th) against N Illinois's defense (288th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N Illinois 28, Northwestern 38
- First-half margin
- Northwestern by 9.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.2
- Projected second half
- N Illinois 33, Northwestern 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 31.7 scored, 33.3 allowed
- Northwestern, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 38.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leah MiddletonG | 29 | 9.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Emilie SorensenG | 25 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Alecia DoyleG | 22 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Nevaeh WingateF | 22 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Laniah DavisG | 20 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Sa'Mahn JohnsonG | 20 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Ashlynn BrookeG | 18 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Anna StrombergF | 14 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
Northwestern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey HarterG | 36 | 13.6 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Jasmyn Cooper-DerbaF | 32 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 7+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Camdyn NelsonG | 32 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Lexi BlueG | 30 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Lily CarmodyG | 28 | 16.4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Kat RigheimerG | 17 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Xamiya WaltonG | 12 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 73% to play · 5+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 24% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Brooke GoldenF | 11 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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