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Probable Stats / Women's / Saturday, November 21

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Saint Peter's at Long Island

Women's · Saturday, November 21, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Brooklyn Athletic Center. Saint Peter's our rank 351 · 0-3; Long Island our rank 345 · 0-4.

Who will win Saint Peter's vs Long Island?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Long Island University a 67% chance to beat Saint Peter's, with a projected score of Long Island 65, Saint Peter's 60.

To winLong Island 67%Saint Peter's 33%
Projected score60–65Saint Peter's, then Long Island
Margin5.4Long Island · no line posted
Total125.6no line posted
First half28–31Long Island ahead 61%
Saint Peter's by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30Long Island by 40Model: Long Island by 5.4Saint Peter's by 20Evenby 20Long Island by 40Model: Long Island by 5.4

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Long Island
WilliamsG · 32 min15.18.22.115+ 49%
NunezF · 34 min12.34.41.410+ 64%
PoindujourG · 23 min6.72.42.05+ 63%
HuskeyG · 21 min6.32.61.45+ 59%
Saint Peter's
RoyC · 23 min9.95.01.110+ 47%
EstridgeF · 22 min7.93.80.810+ 33%
PlataG · 26 min6.92.82.15+ 65%
MillsG · 20 min6.22.41.45+ 58%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Saint Peter's 0-3LLL

    1. Nov 12L 46-78at Miami
    2. Nov 8L 37-97at Georgetown
    3. Nov 3L 52-81at Pitt
    Last 3
    0–3, scoring 45.0 and allowing 85.3

    Long Island 0-4LLLL

    1. Nov 11L 50-69at SMU
    2. Nov 7L 42-92at Pitt
    3. Nov 4L 51-69at Texas St
    4. Nov 2L 52-83at Rutgers
    Last 4
    0–4, scoring 48.8 and allowing 78.2

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Saint Peter'sLong Island
    Points scored per 100 possessions78.3 330th77.0 342nd
    Points allowed per 100106.5 357th103.0 340th
    Possessions a game69.7 347th72.3 148th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)44.6% 239th46.4% 122nd
    Opponents' shooting47.7% 302nd44.4% 116th
    Turnovers, share of possessions23.2% 160th29.4% 357th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses29.3% 338th34.4% 104th
    Free throws per shot0.19 327th0.18 332nd

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Saint Peter's 28, Long Island 31
    First-half margin
    Long Island by 3.1
    First-half points, both teams
    59.5
    Projected second half
    Saint Peter's 32, Long Island 34
    Second-half points, both teams
    66.0
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Saint Peter's, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 3 · 21.7 scored, 46.7 allowed
    Long Island, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 4 · 24.8 scored, 38.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Saint Peter's

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Sierra PatricioG305.43.71.90.6
    5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 54%
    Ineivi PlataG266.92.82.10.8
    5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 53%
    Carys RoyC239.95.01.10.0
    10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 29%
    Lamaria EstridgeF227.93.80.81.0
    10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 58%
    Jada MillsG206.22.41.41.4
    5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 39%
    Ebere EgbirikaG203.72.61.30.3
    5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 35%
    Eszter TuriG163.33.20.40.1
    5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 57%
    Nikola ZdenkovaG142.70.60.70.8
    5+ pts 22% · 2+ ast 17% · 1+ threes 49%

    Missed the last game: Aniyah Neal (16 min a game).

    Long Island

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Leila NunezF3412.34.41.42.1
    10+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 56%
    Janessa WilliamsG3215.18.22.11.5
    15+ pts 49% · 8+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 59%
    Camille WileyG304.92.72.30.3
    5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 40%
    Teriyah McFaddenG285.93.03.20.9
    5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53%
    Fabiana PoindujourG236.72.42.01.3
    5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 55%
    Laura MolnarovaF215.94.41.10.4
    5+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 34%
    Sydney HuskeyG216.32.61.41.0
    5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 58%
    Kylie MorrisF123.32.80.50.1
    5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 48%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sat, Nov 21

    All games
    1. 12 PMprojected 67-63James Madison at George Mason, women's: game page
    2. 1 PMprojected 62-63N Dakota St at UTSA, women's: game page
    3. 3 PMprojected 72-69Fairfield at Oregon St, women's: game page
    4. 5 PMprojected 68-71Alabama vs North Carolina, women's: game page
    5. 5 PMprojected 66-70Cincinnati at UNLV, women's: game page
    6. 7 PMprojected 74-63Duke at Columbia, women's: game page
    Saint Peter's next: vs Lafayette, Wed, Nov 18 · 22%Long Island next: at G Washington, Sat, Nov 14 · 2%Saint Peter's: schedule and oddsLong Island: schedule and odds