C Michigan at Minnesota
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at The Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota. C Michigan our rank 253 · 0-3; Minnesota AP 18, our rank 15 · 3-0.
Who will win C Michigan vs Minnesota?
The model gives Minnesota a >99% chance to beat Central Michigan, with a projected score of Minnesota 87, C Michigan 44.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | |||||
| GrocholskiG · 27 min | 14.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 15+ 48% | |
| MerkleC · 16 min | 13.4 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 15+ 39% | |
| HarmonG · 24 min | 11.5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 10+ 59% | |
| BraunG · 27 min | 11.1 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| C Michigan | |||||
| DavisG · 24 min | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 5+ 59% | |
| SmithF · 24 min | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 5+ 58% | |
| DavisG · 22 min | 5.4 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 5+ 51% | |
| GreenG · 20 min | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 5+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Grace Grocholski: C Michigan <1%Minnesota >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Minnesota >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Minnesota without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | ||||
| Grace Grocholski | 6.6 | >99% | 0 | 47–84 |
| Mara Braun | 5.8 | >99% | 0 | 47–84 |
| Gracie Merkle | 3.7 | >99% | 0 | 46–85 |
| Leah Harmon | 3.4 | >99% | 0 | 46–86 |
| C Michigan | ||||
| Indya Davis | 1.0 | >99% | 0 | 44–88 |
| Summer Davis | 0.8 | >99% | 0 | 44–88 |
Change is in Minnesota's win chance, in points. Scores read C Michigan, then Minnesota. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
C Michigan 0-3LLL
- Nov 8L 42-74vs Butler
- Nov 5L 36-103at Ohio StateDidn't cover +45.5 · Under 143.5
- Nov 2L 58-62vs Old Dominion
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 45.3 and allowing 79.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| C Michigan | Minnesota | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 76.5 348th | 116.4 6th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.2 97th | 82.5 40th |
| Possessions a game | 74.3 29th | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 38.7% 363rd | 48.5% 36th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.4% 235th | 46.7% 254th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 29.4% 358th | 23.3% 171st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.4% 302nd | 40.2% 3rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 173rd | 0.24 39th |
The widest gap: Minnesota's defense (40th) against C Michigan's offense (348th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- C Michigan 19, Minnesota 44
- First-half margin
- Minnesota by 24.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.3
- Projected second half
- C Michigan 25, Minnesota 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- C Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 19.7 scored, 38.0 allowed
- Minnesota, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
C Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley SmithF | 24 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Summer DavisG | 24 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Indya DavisG | 22 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Nevaeh WilliamsG | 21 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Jailenn GreenG | 20 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Lilah TurnbullG | 19 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Rylan BuschellG | 17 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 2+ reb 20% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Kara BartelsC | 16 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 55% | |||||
Minnesota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace GrocholskiG | 27 | 14.9 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mara BraunG | 27 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Natalie KussowG | 24 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Leah HarmonG | 24 | 11.5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 59% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Tayla ThomasF | 21 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 9+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Tori OehrleinG | 16 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Gracie MerkleC | 16 | 13.4 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Kennedy KlickG | 13 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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