Who will win S Indiana vs Indiana?
The model gives Indiana a 96% chance to beat Southern Indiana, with a projected score of Indiana 78, S Indiana 56.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Indiana | |||||
| Socka-NguemenF · 23 min | 12.4 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 10+ 65% | |
| MakaluskyF · 24 min | 11.1 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 10+ 57% | |
| BeaumontG · 21 min | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 10+ 43% | |
| WilliamsF · 16 min | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 40% | |
 S Indiana | |||||
| GannonF · 19 min | 10.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 53% | |
| LodenG · 23 min | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 5+ 62% | |
| GannonF · 20 min | 6.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 5+ 58% | |
| OrtizG · 21 min | 6.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jess Petrie: S Indiana 6%Indiana 94%
The white mark is the call with her: Indiana 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Indiana without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | ||||
| Jess Petrie | 3.3 | 94% | −2 | 58–76 |
| Zania Socka-Nguemen | 3.2 | 94% | −2 | 58–76 |
| Malia Samuels | 3.0 | 94% | −2 | 57–76 |
| Kenzie Hare | 3.0 | 94% | −2 | 57–76 |
| S Indiana | ||||
| Chloe Gannon | 1.6 | 97% | +1 | 55–79 |
| Sophia Loden | 1.4 | 97% | +1 | 55–79 |
| Channah Gannon | 1.3 | 97% | +1 | 55–79 |
| Amiyah Buchanan | 1.0 | 97% | +1 | 55–78 |
Change is in Indiana's win chance, in points. Scores read S Indiana, then Indiana. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
S Indiana 1-3LLLW
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 70.2 and allowing 60.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| S Indiana | Indiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.2 159th | 106.7 33rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.5 101st | 84.2 55th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 211th | 72.3 148th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.6% 235th | 48.4% 37th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.2% 285th | 44.0% 85th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.9% 213th | 22.0% 61st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.1% 344th | 34.3% 109th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 340th | 0.24 43rd |
The widest gap: Indiana's defense (55th) against S Indiana's offense (159th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- S Indiana 25, Indiana 38
- First-half margin
- Indiana by 12.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.5
- Projected second half
- S Indiana 31, Indiana 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- S Indiana, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 34.5 scored, 30.2 allowed
- Indiana, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 23.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
S Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia LodenG | 23 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Shannon BlacherG | 22 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Tamara OrtizG | 21 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Chloe GannonF | 20 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Amiyah BuchananF | 20 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 55% | |||||
| Channah GannonF | 19 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Lexi SepulvedaG | 19 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 23% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Ella BobeG | 19 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Tamara Ortiz (24 min a game).
Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenzie HareG | 28 | 8.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Malia SamuelsG | 24 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Maya MakaluskyF | 24 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Zania Socka-NguemenF | 23 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Lenee BeaumontG | 21 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Addy NyemchekF | 20 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Jess PetrieF | 18 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Alisa WilliamsF | 16 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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