Who will win NJIT vs Dartmouth?
The model gives NJIT a 57% chance to beat Dartmouth, with a projected score of NJIT 58, Dartmouth 56.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NJIT | |||||
| GingrichG · 32 min | 13.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 15+ 42% | |
| LocklearF · 28 min | 8.9 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 40% | |
| GestosaniG · 28 min | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 5+ 61% | |
| EngelbyG · 30 min | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 5+ 56% | |
 Dartmouth | |||||
| OzelG · 33 min | 11.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 10+ 56% | |
| EldredgeG · 29 min | 8.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 35% | |
| MacDonaldF · 29 min | 7.4 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 5+ 68% | |
| AustinF · 32 min | 7.1 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ava Locklear: NJIT 51%Dartmouth 49%
The white mark is the call with her: NJIT 57%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | NJIT without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJIT | ||||
| Ava Locklear | 2.0 | 51% | −6 | 57–57 |
| Allison Cannon | 1.4 | 52% | −5 | 58–57 |
| Marissa Gingrich | 1.4 | 53% | −4 | 58–57 |
| Dartmouth | ||||
| Catherine MacDonald | 0.5 | 59% | +2 | 59–56 |
Change is in NJIT's win chance, in points. Scores read NJIT, then Dartmouth. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
NJIT 4-0WWWW
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 59.5 and allowing 50.8
Dartmouth 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 51-46vs New Hampshire
- Nov 5L 46-49at Holy Cross
- Nov 2W 56-49vs Boston U
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 51.0 and allowing 48.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| NJIT | Dartmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.6 226th | 80.1 316th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 91.6 127th | 91.8 131st |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 70.0 338th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.4% 256th | 42.4% 332nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 41.0% 11th | 43.0% 40th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.2% 152nd | 22.7% 114th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.9% 320th | 30.8% 290th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 85th | 0.17 353rd |
The widest gap: NJIT's defense (127th) against Dartmouth's offense (316th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- NJIT 28, Dartmouth 27
- First-half margin
- NJIT by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 54.4
- Projected second half
- NJIT 31, Dartmouth 30
- Second-half points, both teams
- 60.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- NJIT, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 29.5 scored, 26.8 allowed
- Dartmouth, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 26.7 scored, 23.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
NJIT
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marissa GingrichG | 32 | 13.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Piper EngelbyG | 30 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Ava LocklearF | 28 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 8+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Madilyn DogsG | 28 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Mia GestosaniG | 28 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Mackenzie Wright-RawlsF | 17 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Kate DonovanG | 15 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Olivia O'MeallyF | 11 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2+ reb 44% | |||||
Dartmouth
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeynep OzelG | 33 | 11.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Olivia AustinF | 32 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 8+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Catherine MacDonaldF | 29 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Sierra CarsonG | 29 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Alexandra EldredgeG | 29 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Peyton HoblockF | 19 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Tahira MuhammadG | 17 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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