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Probable Stats / Women's / Tuesday, November 17

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Bellarmine at Indiana St

Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Hulman Center. Bellarmine our rank 352 · 1-3; Indiana St our rank 234 · 1-3.

Who will win Bellarmine vs Indiana St?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Indiana State a 95% chance to beat Bellarmine, with a projected score of Indiana St 83, Bellarmine 63.

To winIndiana St 95%Bellarmine 5%
Projected score63–83Bellarmine, then Indiana St
Margin20.1Indiana St · no line posted
Total146.5no line posted
First half29–41Indiana St ahead 86%
Bellarmine by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40Indiana St by 50Model: Indiana St by 20.1Bellarmine by 10by 10by 30Indiana St by 50Model: Indiana St by 20.1

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Indiana St
SinghatehG · 29 min12.44.54.110+ 65%
AjomaleF · 20 min11.75.01.110+ 60%
YoungbloodG · 25 min11.13.92.210+ 56%
McMillanF · 20 min10.56.10.710+ 52%
Bellarmine
RalstonG · 24 min11.84.02.810+ 61%
Abdel AalC · 23 min8.86.31.110+ 40%
HymanF · 26 min7.34.01.85+ 68%
RowlandG · 17 min6.31.71.35+ 59%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Bellarmine 1-3LWLL

    1. Nov 10L 66-91at Bowling Green
    2. Nov 8L 37-92at Miami OH
    3. Nov 5W 113-49vs Simmons (KY)
    4. Nov 2L 47-119at Louisville
    Last 4
    1–3, scoring 65.8 and allowing 87.8

    Indiana St 1-3LLLW

    1. Nov 10W 86-74vs IU Indy
    2. Nov 8L 76-107at Rutgers
    3. Nov 6L 56-74at Seton Hall
    4. Nov 2L 71-76at N Illinois
    Last 4
    1–3, scoring 72.2 and allowing 82.8

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    BellarmineIndiana St
    Points scored per 100 possessions76.2 349th89.9 179th
    Points allowed per 100104.9 347th101.2 316th
    Possessions a game74.5 24th76.1 8th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)43.2% 309th44.0% 280th
    Opponents' shooting47.8% 306th48.9% 341st
    Turnovers, share of possessions29.0% 355th22.2% 78th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.1% 165th35.4% 63rd
    Free throws per shot0.22 136th0.22 102nd

    The widest gap: Indiana St's offense (179th) against Bellarmine's defense (347th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Bellarmine 29, Indiana St 41
    First-half margin
    Indiana St by 11.6
    First-half points, both teams
    69.5
    Projected second half
    Bellarmine 34, Indiana St 43
    Second-half points, both teams
    77.1
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Bellarmine, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 4 · 26.8 scored, 48.0 allowed
    Indiana St, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 4 · 31.8 scored, 43.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Bellarmine

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Kayce HymanF267.34.01.80.5
    5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 52%
    Triniti RalstonG2411.84.02.80.7
    10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 50%
    Anna RodgersG235.52.50.50.7
    5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 47%
    Hana Abdel AalC238.86.31.10.4
    10+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 30%
    Coumba KeitaG224.34.51.00.6
    5+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 43%
    Leigha AcoffG185.22.31.30.4
    5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 37%
    Savannah RowlandG176.31.71.30.8
    5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 50%
    Haya Abdel AalC164.04.10.50.0
    5+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 53%

    Missed the last game: Tacko Sy (15 min a game).

    Indiana St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Ashley SinghatehG2912.44.54.10.9
    10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 53%
    Aaliyah YoungbloodG2511.13.92.20.9
    10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 56%
    Karsen MarshallG218.33.01.41.6
    10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 43%
    Saroiya AjomaleF2011.75.01.10.9
    10+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 54%
    Kristen McMillanF2010.56.10.70.3
    10+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 28%
    Jayci AllenG205.83.00.51.3
    5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 36%
    Amerie FlowersF179.77.50.30.0
    10+ pts 46% · 8+ reb 46%
    Eanae DagonsG163.42.21.70.5
    5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 49%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Tue, Nov 17

    All games
    1. 5 PMprojected 64-68Army at UMass, women's: game page
    2. 6 PMprojected 70-69Temple at G Washington, women's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 58-62Seton Hall at Auburn, women's: game page
    4. 7:30 PMprojected 63-77Marquette at Wisconsin, women's: game page
    5. 9:30 PMprojected 63-66Rice at UNLV, women's: game page
    6. 10:30 PMprojected 67-61Washington at Washington St, women's: game page
    Bellarmine next: vs Bradley, Sat, Nov 14 · 6%Indiana St next: vs Wright St, Fri, Nov 13 · 70%Bellarmine: schedule and oddsIndiana St: schedule and odds