Virginia Tech v UT Martin
Women's · Monday, November 23, 2026, 2:30 PM ET at Raider Arena. Virginia Tech our rank 34 · 4-0; UT Martin our rank 271 · 2-2.
Who will win Virginia Tech vs UT Martin?
The model gives Virginia Tech a >99% chance to beat UT Martin, with a projected score of Virginia Tech 88, UT Martin 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | |||||
| WenzelG · 28 min | 17.0 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 15+ 61% | |
| DimaroC · 24 min | 15.3 | 11.9 | 1.1 | 15+ 51% | |
| SuffrenG · 24 min | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 10+ 59% | |
| LathamF · 20 min | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 40% | |
| UT Martin | |||||
| SmithG · 26 min | 8.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 10+ 35% | |
| SimsG · 20 min | 7.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 10+ 32% | |
| EspeletF · 20 min | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 5+ 61% | |
| MiddletonG · 18 min | 5.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5+ 51% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Carleigh Wenzel: Virginia Tech 99%UT Martin 1%
The white mark is the call with her: Virginia Tech >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Virginia Tech without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | ||||
| Carleigh Wenzel | 4.5 | 99% | −1 | 85–56 |
| Samyha Suffren | 4.0 | 99% | −1 | 86–56 |
| Alyssa Latham | 3.8 | 99% | −1 | 86–56 |
| Leila Wells | 3.3 | 99% | −1 | 86–56 |
Change is in Virginia Tech's win chance, in points. Scores read Virginia Tech, then UT Martin. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Virginia Tech 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 77-66at VCU
- Nov 8W 59-43vs James Madison
- Nov 4W 101-53vs Delaware
- Nov 2W 85-39vs NC Central
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 80.5 and allowing 50.2
UT Martin 2-2WWLL
- Nov 12L 59-103at Missouri
- Nov 8L 68-114vs Mississippi St
- Nov 5W 105-41vs Christian Brothers
- Nov 2W 90-89vs E Kentucky
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 80.5 and allowing 86.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Virginia Tech | UT Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.7 53rd | 89.4 187th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 78.8 17th | 103.9 342nd |
| Possessions a game | 73.6 65th | 73.3 76th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.9% 212th | 45.1% 200th |
| Opponents' shooting | 41.2% 13th | 51.8% 363rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.5% 32nd | 22.7% 111th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 37.6% 21st | 29.5% 333rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 246th | 0.20 233rd |
The widest gap: Virginia Tech's offense (53rd) against UT Martin's defense (342nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Virginia Tech 43, UT Martin 24
- First-half margin
- Virginia Tech by 19.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.2
- Projected second half
- Virginia Tech 44, UT Martin 30
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Virginia Tech, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 39.0 scored, 19.8 allowed
- UT Martin, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 40.2 scored, 43.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Virginia Tech
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carleigh WenzelG | 28 | 17.0 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 4+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Leila WellsG | 27 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Samyha SuffrenG | 24 | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Jessica DimaroC | 24 | 15.3 | 11.9 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 12+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Aniya TrentF | 23 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Alyssa LathamF | 20 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Kate SearsG | 20 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Kaleo AndersonG | 14 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
UT Martin
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia SmithG | 26 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Tyler JonesG | 23 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Raven SimsG | 20 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 50% to play · 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Lily EspeletF | 20 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Maddie PenneyG | 18 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Sidni MiddletonG | 18 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Sophie Chard PeloquinG | 18 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Kennedy HortonF | 16 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Raven Sims (23 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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